Shifts in the Foreign.....

(Friday, February 13, 2026)

Prepared by: Studies Team

​The interim capital, Aden, and liberated areas have witnessed a radical shift in Yemeni Rial (YER) exchange rates since yesterday, February 12, 2026. This is the result of concerted regulatory efforts between the Central Bank of Yemen (CBY) and market forces, bolstered by direct economic support from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) amid strict restrictive measures imposed by exchange companies.

​I. Analysis of Exchange Rate Shifts (Daily Comparison)

​US Dollar vs. Yemeni Rial (USD/YER):

​Previous Rate: 1,617

​Current Rate: 1,558

​Improvement: Approximately 3.65% in the value of the local currency.

​Saudi Riyal vs. Yemeni Rial (SAR/YER):

​Previous Rate: 425

​Current Rate: 410

​Improvement: Approximately 3.53% in the value of the local currency.

​Table: Decline in Foreign Currency Rates (Feb 13, 02:00 PM)

Currency Previous Rate Current Rate (Al-Kuraimi) Improvement %

US Dollar (USD) 1,617 1,558 3.6%

Saudi Riyal (SAR) 425 410

II. Fundamental Reasons for Currency Recovery

​Direct Saudi Support: The actual commencement of funding injections dedicated to supporting salaries in the government and military sectors, alongside the continuity of the oil derivatives grant for power plants and ongoing development projects via the Saudi Collaboration for the Reconstruction of Yemen (SDRPY). In January 2026, the KSA provided an urgent $90 million (initial installment) for overdue salaries. Furthermore, the KSA committed to covering the salaries of all military and security forces under the Higher Military Committee, consolidating security efforts under state authority.

​Energy and Infrastructure: SDRPY launched a new oil derivatives grant worth $81.2 million, providing over 339 million liters of diesel and mazut to operate more than 70 power stations. This has tangibly reduced power outages and eased pressure on CBY hard currency reserves. Additionally, a new development package worth SAR 1.9 billion (approx. $500 million) was inaugurated in January 2026.

​CBY and Market Coordination: Governor Ahmed Ghaleb al-Maabagi held intensive meetings with the Exchangers Association and traders, resulting in a consensus on a guidance exchange rate (Buying SAR at 410 / Selling at 413). The CBY Board approved "strict field measures," including large-scale inspections to close unlicensed firms and prevent currency speculation, while maintaining foreign exchange auctions for imports.

​Grant Expectations: Leaks regarding imminent new cash inflows have prompted speculators to offload hard currency holdings.

​III. Sustainability and Policy: The "Floating" Question

​This decline is classified as an "Administrative Recovery" resulting from speculation control rather than structural shifts. Experts believe the recovery remains fragile unless oil and gas exports resume. The CBY, adhering to "Floating Exchange Rate" policies and IMF recommendations, has opted for a "market understanding" approach rather than purely coercive measures to ensure stability ahead of Ramadan.

​Note on Policy: A "Floating Exchange Rate" means the CBY does not set a fixed official rate, letting supply and demand decide. Yemen is currently in a state of "Forced Floatation" driven by resource scarcity rather than a luxury policy choice.

​IV. Market Status and Exchanger Behavior

​Despite the improvements, reports as of Feb 13 indicate the recovery is "cautious." Field monitoring revealed several restrictive practices by exchange houses:

​Daily Transaction Ceilings: Exchangers have sharply rationed sales. Al-Kuraimi and others set a daily limit of only 82,600 YER per transaction (roughly 200 SAR), despite the CBY's previous individual limit of 2,000 SAR.

​Banknote Denomination Restrictions: Exchangers continue to force the public to accept the 200 YER (yellow) denomination to offload liquidity of smaller notes, causing public frustration.

​Refusal to Purchase: Many shops refuse to buy hard currency from citizens, citing a lack of YER liquidity and fearing further rate drops.

​Price Rigidity: Food prices remain stagnant due to "structural inertia," as traders hold inventory purchased at higher rates.

​V. Future Outlook (Ramadan Impact)

​Purchasing Power: Regular salary payments supported by the KSA will boost purchasing power for Ramadan, reviving commercial activity.

​Projections: If exchangers remain committed to CBY understandings, relative stability is expected. However, any delay in promised donor inflows could lead to a price rebound.

​Strategic Recommendations

​Monetary Level: Convert verbal "understandings" with exchangers into binding regulatory mechanisms and review daily transaction ceilings to prevent the growth of a "Black Market."

​Fiscal Level: Accelerate the resumption of sovereign exports (oil/gas) as the only sustainable source of hard currency and rationalize non-essential external government spending.

​Market Level: Launch strict oversight campaigns by the Ministry of Industry and Trade to force wholesalers to reflect the new exchange rate (1,558 USD) in commodity prices.